The U.S. real estate market peaked between
2005 – 2007, depending on the exact locale. Since then nearly all national
reporting on real estate has been negative – with “Foreclosures“, “Short Sales“, “Falling Home Prices” and such dominating the headlines.

So, where is the good news about real estate? Apparently right here in Howard County, Maryland!

Howard County Home Prices “Stabilize”

As with the rest of the U.S., prices for Ellicott City, Columbia and other Howard County homes have fallen since the market’s peak. But, while average U.S. prices fell anywhere from 21% to 33%, depending on which reports you read, Howard County’s home prices had a “softer” drop: 17.8%.   Maybe small comfort to those who bought a home in Ellicott City or Columbia Maryland in ’06 or ’07, but still better than national averages.

Also, since 2009 Ellicott City and other Howard County home prices appear to have stabilized.  Average Howard County home prices peaked in 2007 at $455,464 and hit bottom (we hope) at $390,093 in 2009.  The past two years average Howard County home prices were up slightly in 2010 ($402,848, up 3.2%) and down slightly in 2011 ($401,535, down 0.3%).  (Statistics collected from Metropolitan Regional Information Services. Get more info on Ellicott City / Howard County MD homes for sale and Ellicott City real estate information from JohnAndAngela.com here).

BRAC Employment Helping

Over the past two years Howard County home prices had actually had a positive change in average prices – by 1.5% per year!  Not the stunning 23.7% increase we saw from ’03 to ’04, but still a danged sight better than the -11.3% from ’08 to ’09.  And better than the overall (continued) price declines most of the nation saw the past two years.

No doubt the beefed up employment at Ft Meade due to BRAC has been helping. While many area home owners had hoped BRAC would lead to huge increases in home prices, the overall slow economy and tougher lending standards just wouldn’t support this. But – any increase is better than what most of the nation has seen the past two years.

Near-term predictions?  One year ago I reported on the year/year 3.2% increase in Howard County home prices. At that time I made a “hopeful” pronouncement that we’d hit bottom, and predicted largely flat prices for the next few years.

For 2011 I was correct. The slight -0.3% decline is easily within my definition of “flat” prices (+/- 2%).  I believe we have another 2-3 years of continued flat home prices.  Yes, BRAC will continue to help on  the positive side, but a sluggish economy and restrictive lending standards will balance things out for continued price neutrality.

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