Centennial / Ellicott City Home Sale Price Changes '03-'11

I recently posted on the year/year price trends for Howard County, Maryland homes for sale over the past 10 years.  In summary, the average sold price of homes sold in Howard County increased 3.2% from 2009 – 2010, decreased -0.3% from 2010 – 2011, and taking the two years combined yields an average increase in price of 1.5% per year for two years in a row.  In short – there is strong evidence that Howard County MD home prices have “stabilized”.

But, what about average prices and number of sales for homes sold near Centennial High School and/or Centennial Lane Elementary in Ellicott City over the same time period?

Basically, homes selling in the Centennial High School/Centennial Lane Elementary School area experienced peaks and valleys similar to the county over all.  However, because of the strong test scores and “pull” of both Centennial High School and Centennial Lane Elementary School, the peaks and valleys were a bit more extreme.  (CLICK HERE for a list of homes currently for sale in the Centennial school area and/or to get the price of a specific home recently sold).

Home prices in Howard County peaked in 2006 ($453,951) and they peaked for the Ellicott City – Centennial schools neighborhood in 2006 as well, but at a higher $753,736.   Both areas also saw prices fall to lows in 2009 – Howard County home prices that year were $390,093 and for both Centennial schools’ neighborhood were $504,557.

The price drop for Howard County home sales, ’06 – ’09, was -14.1%, but in the Centennial school neighborhood it was a more extreme -33.1%.  However, during the price run-up of ’01 through ’06 Centennial school area home sales also experienced a more extreme increase too.   For example, during the peak increase years of ’02 – ’04 Howard County home prices rose an average of 39.2% (from $263,743 to $367,036), while Centennial school area home prices rose an incredible 63.6% during the same two year period ($382,764 to $626,102).

Centennial / Ellicott City Home Sale Stats: '00 - '11

Even the price “stabilization” / slight uptick in prices has been more extreme for Centennial school area homes.  County prices have been essentially stable from ’09 – ’11 with an overall 1.5% increase per year.  For Centennial school area homes prices are up an overall 6.5%/year the past two years.

Where will Ellicott City home prices, especially in the Centennial school area, go the next few years?  As with my predictions for Howard County home sales in general, I believe we have “hit bottom” on price declines, and we’re not likely to see any significant price increases for the next 2-3 years.  Why?

On the positive side, our region has stronger employment numbers than national averages, and the high test scores for Centennial schools will continue to be a draw.  However, mortgage qualification standards continue to be strict, and many would-be home buyers for Ellicott City homes who relocate from other states are finding it hard to sell their out-of-state homes, leaving them unable to buy here.

In short – our housing market has (hopefully) hit bottom, the county (and especially the Centennial school area of Ellicott City) appears to be in “recovery”, and we’re not likely to see big price swings up or down over the next 2-3 years.  CLICK HERE to search for homes for sale in Centennial school area, Ellicott City – or – CLICK HERE to request a Free, No-Obligations market valuation of YOUR home.

Lord knows it’s been hard to find “good news” in real estate the past few years. So, when a cautious, financially conservative voice like the Wall Street Journal opines It’s Time To Buy That House, you have to believe there’s something to it. While the WSJ article focuses on national figures, we believe it applies quite well to Howard County Maryland real estate and Ellicott City home sales in particular.

The gist of the WSJ article is that, just like using a stock’s price/earnings ratio helps determine whether a stock is a “bargain”, a home’s price/rent ratio can likewise reveal whether it’s time to buy.   In either case a lower number indicates a better “bargain.”  Nationwide the price/rent ratio hit 18.5 at market’s peak. Today it’s down to 11.3.

Price/rent ratios aren’t available anywhere for Howard County or Ellicott City homes for sale, but we do have recent sale price statistics for Howard County and Ellicott City home sales. Monthly home sales for Howard County Maryland, September 2011 vs. September 2010, show Howard County home prices are stable:  the average price increased 0.2% and median price increased 0.33%.

Likewise, statistics for zip code 21042 (west Ellicott City) for September 2011 vs. 2010 reveal the average price dipped 2.47% ($549,225 to $535,666) but the median price rose 4.0% ($500,000 to $520,000).  Taken together, we read these figures to say Ellicott City home prices have reached “balance”.   Click here to request monthly updates of Howard County home sales or Ellicott City home sales.

So, the Ellicott City home you buy today will cost about the same as last year – but, the mortgage will cost much less. The cost of borrowing money is near all-time lows at just 4.25% for a 30-Year fixed rate according to WellsFargo.com.  For comparison on a $500,000 mortgage, an Ellicott City home buyer today would pay 22% less than if rates were at 6% (as many had predicted for fall 2011) - $2,460 today vs. $2,998/mo at 6%.

So, to paraphrase the WSJ, yes, it is time to buy that Ellicott City home.

Remodeled Centennial Beauty

If you’re looking to buy in the Centennial Lane Elementary school district there are currently 23 homes for sale. There are nine priced between $375,000 to $600,000, including the home to the right, a spacious-and-updated colonial on an over-sized lot priced below recent sales.  There are a total of 49 homes for sale in the entire Centennial High School district, including 28 priced between $180,000 to $600,000.

If you are looking for homes for sale in specific school districts, like Centennial High School or Marriotts Ridge High School, click here to set up an AccuSearch® home search. Now you can be the first to know when your dream home hits the market – and only AccuSearch® gives you the ability to include school district(s) as one of your search criteria.

Use our Contact Form to request regular market updates on Howard County Maryland real estate and/or Columbia Maryland or Ellicott City Maryland homes for sale, OR if you would like to speak with one of us about buying or selling a home.  Thanks!

Happy New Year! (And, Happy Birthday, Angela Toner!).  With the new year comes the inevitable questions: Will Ellicott City home sales and home prices increase for 2011? No one knows for sure, but  market factors seem to indicate that Ellicott City home prices will remain flat – or even dip a bit more – in 2011, but the pace of home sales may kick off the new year with a bang.

So, what are the factors that will influence Ellicott City home prices, and home sales, in 2011?

RISING MORTGAGE RATES. Mortgage rates have been on the rise the past 90 days, and are predicted to continue to rise through year’s end.  Rising rates are good/bad news for home sellers.  Good news, because rising rates give buyers a sense of urgency – they want to buy quickly, before rates rise again.  But, rising rates decrease the amount of home they can afford – putting downward pressure on prices.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND. Because of excellent schools like Centennial High School, demand for homes for sale nearby Centennial has always been relatively strong from potential home buyers.  However – home buyers’ enthusiasm level in 2011 is tempered by the knowledge that Ellicott City home prices have fallen steadily for four years in a row. In 2011, more than ever before, Ellicott City home buyers have a cautious, “I can wait” attitude.  If you know the sale price and date of  Ellicott City home, this government website lets you calculate it’s approximate value today. Or, for a more accurate valuation of your specific Ellicott City home’s value – free – click here.

While demand is a bit dampened overall, there is a constant supply of homes hitting the market every week.  Not just “willing” sellers, but “unwilling” ones too – as with Ellicott City foreclosures and “short sales”. The good news is that Howard County MD home foreclosure rates – and Ellicott City foreclosure rates in particular – are well below national averages (see prior blog). But – even at these lower rates, they still increase the “supply” of homes, putting downward pressure on prices.

TIGHT BANK APPRAISALS. The collapse of housing prices affects everyone, but banks most of all, with total bank losses estimated anywhere from $1 Trillion up to $4-5 Trillion.   When banks lose that kind of money, it’s understandable they’re now a tad “over-cautious” to approve new loans.  Appraisers are under pressure from banks to come in with low appraisal values – so even if 2011 home buyers were willing to pay higher prices (which they’re not), the banker-appraiser-Federal regulator cartel wouldn’t let them.

TEMPORARY “SPIKES” AND “DROPS” DURING 2011. The above indicators tell us that Ellicott City home prices will not increase anytime this year – or, frankly, anytime for the next 3-5 years – and they could dip another 2-5% this year.  However, we see rising interest rates, plus the threat of possible lowering of conforming loan limits [reported in the Wall Street Journal] as leading to an “early spring.”  Ellicott City home sellers contemplating a sale in 2011 would do well to get their home on the market early – even February – rather than the typical April listing time frame.  [And, with interest rates rising, Ellicott City home buyers would also do well to act quickly].

SELLER OR BUYER CONSULTATION – $349 VALUE – YOURS FREE. Click here to learn about our Free SELL-SMART™ Consultation [including our unique AccuPrice® market valuation of your home]. Or, request our BUY-SMART™ Consultation.  Including materials, both are valued at $349, and both are FREE as a courtesy to you for visiting the John And Angela blog.

We’ve all seen a barrage of “shocking” headlines on foreclosures, including this Reuters posting declaring September 2010 set an all time record with 100,000+ foreclosures nationwide. Howard County home buyers and sellers want to know what impact are foreclosures having on our local market?  Are foreclosure homes in Ellicott City above, below, or equal to the national average? And, how are prices of non- foreclosure homes in Columbia, Maryland affected by foreclosure homes in Howard County Maryland?

A foreclosure certainly decreases the value of the foreclosure home itself, estimated to be an average of 27% according to a posting by Molly Line.  But studies on the affect foreclosure homes have on other homes’ values are less clear and vary in their conclusions, but one study impressed me personally.  A Federal Reserve Bank, Cleveland, Sept 2010 report suggests that where foreclosure rates are “moderate” the impact on housing prices is just -1.6%.

So – do we have “moderate” rates of home foreclosures in Howard County, Maryland?  Are home foreclosure rates in Ellicott City above or below the Howard County average?

For the second quarter of 2010 foreclosures represented 24% of all home sales nationwide.   Statistics from our local Realtor® database of homes (“MRIS”) shows that there were 430 foreclosure home sales in Howard County Maryland from January to September, 2010.  Out of  2,140 total home sales, foreclosure home sales in Howard County represented 20.1% of all home sales.  (Find all Howard County MD or Ellicott City homes for sale here, or search specifically for foreclosure homes in Howard County MD or Ellicott City here).

While every foreclosure is a heartbreak for the family involved, it is partially good news to know that the Howard County rate of foreclosure home sales is less than the national average.

We have broken down statistics even further, to show the impact of foreclosure home sales by neighborhood (Centennial High School area home sales had fewer foreclosures, by far, than the county average) as well as by price range (you’d be shocked to see which price range had a 48% foreclosure average vs. which had a 0% average).

You can request our full analysis of Howard County Foreclosure Homes – By Region And Price Range here.  We hope to publish bits and pieces of the full report, by area, in future blogs.   As per usual, you can call 410-772-5400, M-F, 9-5 with any questions about Howard County real estate, or send us an email here.  Blessings