Centennial / Ellicott City Home Sale Price Changes '03-'11

I recently posted on the year/year price trends for Howard County, Maryland homes for sale over the past 10 years.  In summary, the average sold price of homes sold in Howard County increased 3.2% from 2009 – 2010, decreased -0.3% from 2010 – 2011, and taking the two years combined yields an average increase in price of 1.5% per year for two years in a row.  In short – there is strong evidence that Howard County MD home prices have “stabilized”.

But, what about average prices and number of sales for homes sold near Centennial High School and/or Centennial Lane Elementary in Ellicott City over the same time period?

Basically, homes selling in the Centennial High School/Centennial Lane Elementary School area experienced peaks and valleys similar to the county over all.  However, because of the strong test scores and “pull” of both Centennial High School and Centennial Lane Elementary School, the peaks and valleys were a bit more extreme.  (CLICK HERE for a list of homes currently for sale in the Centennial school area and/or to get the price of a specific home recently sold).

Home prices in Howard County peaked in 2006 ($453,951) and they peaked for the Ellicott City – Centennial schools neighborhood in 2006 as well, but at a higher $753,736.   Both areas also saw prices fall to lows in 2009 – Howard County home prices that year were $390,093 and for both Centennial schools’ neighborhood were $504,557.

The price drop for Howard County home sales, ’06 – ’09, was -14.1%, but in the Centennial school neighborhood it was a more extreme -33.1%.  However, during the price run-up of ’01 through ’06 Centennial school area home sales also experienced a more extreme increase too.   For example, during the peak increase years of ’02 – ’04 Howard County home prices rose an average of 39.2% (from $263,743 to $367,036), while Centennial school area home prices rose an incredible 63.6% during the same two year period ($382,764 to $626,102).

Centennial / Ellicott City Home Sale Stats: '00 - '11

Even the price “stabilization” / slight uptick in prices has been more extreme for Centennial school area homes.  County prices have been essentially stable from ’09 – ’11 with an overall 1.5% increase per year.  For Centennial school area homes prices are up an overall 6.5%/year the past two years.

Where will Ellicott City home prices, especially in the Centennial school area, go the next few years?  As with my predictions for Howard County home sales in general, I believe we have “hit bottom” on price declines, and we’re not likely to see any significant price increases for the next 2-3 years.  Why?

On the positive side, our region has stronger employment numbers than national averages, and the high test scores for Centennial schools will continue to be a draw.  However, mortgage qualification standards continue to be strict, and many would-be home buyers for Ellicott City homes who relocate from other states are finding it hard to sell their out-of-state homes, leaving them unable to buy here.

In short – our housing market has (hopefully) hit bottom, the county (and especially the Centennial school area of Ellicott City) appears to be in “recovery”, and we’re not likely to see big price swings up or down over the next 2-3 years.  CLICK HERE to search for homes for sale in Centennial school area, Ellicott City – or – CLICK HERE to request a Free, No-Obligations market valuation of YOUR home.

The U.S. real estate market peaked between
2005 – 2007, depending on the exact locale. Since then nearly all national
reporting on real estate has been negative – with “Foreclosures“, “Short Sales“, “Falling Home Prices” and such dominating the headlines.

So, where is the good news about real estate? Apparently right here in Howard County, Maryland!

Howard County Home Prices “Stabilize”

As with the rest of the U.S., prices for Ellicott City, Columbia and other Howard County homes have fallen since the market’s peak. But, while average U.S. prices fell anywhere from 21% to 33%, depending on which reports you read, Howard County’s home prices had a “softer” drop: 17.8%.   Maybe small comfort to those who bought a home in Ellicott City or Columbia Maryland in ’06 or ’07, but still better than national averages.

Also, since 2009 Ellicott City and other Howard County home prices appear to have stabilized.  Average Howard County home prices peaked in 2007 at $455,464 and hit bottom (we hope) at $390,093 in 2009.  The past two years average Howard County home prices were up slightly in 2010 ($402,848, up 3.2%) and down slightly in 2011 ($401,535, down 0.3%).  (Statistics collected from Metropolitan Regional Information Services. Get more info on Ellicott City / Howard County MD homes for sale and Ellicott City real estate information from JohnAndAngela.com here).

BRAC Employment Helping

Over the past two years Howard County home prices had actually had a positive change in average prices – by 1.5% per year!  Not the stunning 23.7% increase we saw from ’03 to ’04, but still a danged sight better than the -11.3% from ’08 to ’09.  And better than the overall (continued) price declines most of the nation saw the past two years.

No doubt the beefed up employment at Ft Meade due to BRAC has been helping. While many area home owners had hoped BRAC would lead to huge increases in home prices, the overall slow economy and tougher lending standards just wouldn’t support this. But – any increase is better than what most of the nation has seen the past two years.

Near-term predictions?  One year ago I reported on the year/year 3.2% increase in Howard County home prices. At that time I made a “hopeful” pronouncement that we’d hit bottom, and predicted largely flat prices for the next few years.

For 2011 I was correct. The slight -0.3% decline is easily within my definition of “flat” prices (+/- 2%).  I believe we have another 2-3 years of continued flat home prices.  Yes, BRAC will continue to help on  the positive side, but a sluggish economy and restrictive lending standards will balance things out for continued price neutrality.

SELLER OR BUYER CONSULTATION – $349 VALUE – YOURS FREE. Click here to learn about our Free SELL-SMART™ Consultation [including our unique AccuPrice® market valuation of your home]. Or, request our BUY-SMART™ Consultation.  Including materials, both are valued at $349, and both are FREE as a courtesy to you for visiting the John And Angela blog.

Lord knows it’s been hard to find “good news” in real estate the past few years. So, when a cautious, financially conservative voice like the Wall Street Journal opines It’s Time To Buy That House, you have to believe there’s something to it. While the WSJ article focuses on national figures, we believe it applies quite well to Howard County Maryland real estate and Ellicott City home sales in particular.

The gist of the WSJ article is that, just like using a stock’s price/earnings ratio helps determine whether a stock is a “bargain”, a home’s price/rent ratio can likewise reveal whether it’s time to buy.   In either case a lower number indicates a better “bargain.”  Nationwide the price/rent ratio hit 18.5 at market’s peak. Today it’s down to 11.3.

Price/rent ratios aren’t available anywhere for Howard County or Ellicott City homes for sale, but we do have recent sale price statistics for Howard County and Ellicott City home sales. Monthly home sales for Howard County Maryland, September 2011 vs. September 2010, show Howard County home prices are stable:  the average price increased 0.2% and median price increased 0.33%.

Likewise, statistics for zip code 21042 (west Ellicott City) for September 2011 vs. 2010 reveal the average price dipped 2.47% ($549,225 to $535,666) but the median price rose 4.0% ($500,000 to $520,000).  Taken together, we read these figures to say Ellicott City home prices have reached “balance”.   Click here to request monthly updates of Howard County home sales or Ellicott City home sales.

So, the Ellicott City home you buy today will cost about the same as last year – but, the mortgage will cost much less. The cost of borrowing money is near all-time lows at just 4.25% for a 30-Year fixed rate according to WellsFargo.com.  For comparison on a $500,000 mortgage, an Ellicott City home buyer today would pay 22% less than if rates were at 6% (as many had predicted for fall 2011) - $2,460 today vs. $2,998/mo at 6%.

So, to paraphrase the WSJ, yes, it is time to buy that Ellicott City home.

Remodeled Centennial Beauty

If you’re looking to buy in the Centennial Lane Elementary school district there are currently 23 homes for sale. There are nine priced between $375,000 to $600,000, including the home to the right, a spacious-and-updated colonial on an over-sized lot priced below recent sales.  There are a total of 49 homes for sale in the entire Centennial High School district, including 28 priced between $180,000 to $600,000.

If you are looking for homes for sale in specific school districts, like Centennial High School or Marriotts Ridge High School, click here to set up an AccuSearch® home search. Now you can be the first to know when your dream home hits the market – and only AccuSearch® gives you the ability to include school district(s) as one of your search criteria.

Use our Contact Form to request regular market updates on Howard County Maryland real estate and/or Columbia Maryland or Ellicott City Maryland homes for sale, OR if you would like to speak with one of us about buying or selling a home.  Thanks!

Howard County Home Price Trends - 1978 to 2010

Howard County home buyers and sellers ask me all the time, “Where are home prices headed?” And, more bluntly, “When will Howard County home prices start going up again?”  All predictions are risky and, truth is, no one knows for sure. But I believe home prices in Howard County will  neither increase or decrease significantly over the next two to four years.  (We publish a print newsletter on Howard County real estate trends monthly. To receive future and/or past issues, FREE, click here).

There is downward pressure on our Howard County home prices based on history (this blog), and based on current and likely future mortgage changes (next blog).  However, the Baltimore/Washington regional economy is stronger than the national average, and the Ft. Meade economic boost to Howard County in particular (future blog) helps “balance” downward price pressure.

Howard County Home Prices – 1978 to 2010

To understand the future it’s good to know the past.  Using statistics from the Federal Housing Finance Agency, I developed the price chart above to track the change in home prices in Howard County from 1978 to 2010.  Using a base price of $100,000 in 1978, the wavy blue line tracts actual fluctuations, the thin red line tracts a fictitious straight-line appreciation rate of 5.6% per year (an average appreciation rate for the U.S. over the past 40 years).  Each of the colored panels represents a nine year period.

From 1981 to 1989 (the first green rectangle) Howard County home prices went both up and down. But, in the nine years overall actual price changes tracked perfectly with the 5.6% straight line appreciation level.

In the next nine years, 1990 to 1998, prices remained almost flat.  This was partly due to the recession of ’89 to ’93 as well as tax code changes affecting investment real estate.  In Montgomery county, to the south, homes lost value during this time – but Howard County merely had largely flat prices.

From 1999 to 2007 Howard County home prices shot off like a rocket, climbing 129.8% over nine years. In fact, in just six years ending in ’06 prices jumped 115%. If that rate of increase had continued another six years, the average home price in the county would have hit $1,000,000. This was obviously not sustainable.

The last pink rectangle shows Howard county home prices have falling 15.3% from the market’s peak in ’07 to ’10, which includes a slight uptick of 3.2% on prices in 2010.  While discouraging news to sellers, our decline has been less than the average decline in the U.S., estimated at 23.2%.  Our decline has also been softer than even some other local areas – parts of Prince George’s county have seen 45% – 52% price declines from the peak.

By the way, if you are “curious” about the current value and/or change in value in a particular Howard County home, either yours or one you are considering buying, you can get a general guestimate at FHFA.gov or get a more specific valuation free by email here.

History Will Repeat Itself… But Which History?

Will Ellicott City home prices repeat history from ’02 to ’05 in the next four years?  Will Columbia MD home prices repeat ’08 to ’10 the next three years?  The most likely “guess”, I believe, is that Howard County home prices in the next 2 – 5 years will look much like the 90′s in our area – with little up or down swing.

Even with the 15.3% drop already priced into today’s Howard County home prices, we are still above the staight-line 5.6% sustainable appreciation rate.  And, the types of mortgage changes being contemplated by the Feds (see my coming blog) will have, I believe, a stifling effect on potential price increases typical Ellicott City home prices similar to the effect the tax code changes had in the early 90′s.

Two additional factors keeping downward pressure on prices are present and future contemplated changes to the mortgage industry (my next blog).  But, the present and coming BRAC boost to Ft Meade employment, as well as the Balto/Washington regional economy in general, will have a positive impact on house prices (future blog) that will net out, I believe, to yield an overall flat home price picture over the next 2-4 years.

And, if you (or your FRIENDS!) are thinking of buying or selling a Howard County home in the near future, call me (410-772-5400 work, 443-420-7041 Google Voice) or click here.  Thanks for reading!

Happy New Year! (And, Happy Birthday, Angela Toner!).  With the new year comes the inevitable questions: Will Ellicott City home sales and home prices increase for 2011? No one knows for sure, but  market factors seem to indicate that Ellicott City home prices will remain flat – or even dip a bit more – in 2011, but the pace of home sales may kick off the new year with a bang.

So, what are the factors that will influence Ellicott City home prices, and home sales, in 2011?

RISING MORTGAGE RATES. Mortgage rates have been on the rise the past 90 days, and are predicted to continue to rise through year’s end.  Rising rates are good/bad news for home sellers.  Good news, because rising rates give buyers a sense of urgency – they want to buy quickly, before rates rise again.  But, rising rates decrease the amount of home they can afford – putting downward pressure on prices.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND. Because of excellent schools like Centennial High School, demand for homes for sale nearby Centennial has always been relatively strong from potential home buyers.  However – home buyers’ enthusiasm level in 2011 is tempered by the knowledge that Ellicott City home prices have fallen steadily for four years in a row. In 2011, more than ever before, Ellicott City home buyers have a cautious, “I can wait” attitude.  If you know the sale price and date of  Ellicott City home, this government website lets you calculate it’s approximate value today. Or, for a more accurate valuation of your specific Ellicott City home’s value – free – click here.

While demand is a bit dampened overall, there is a constant supply of homes hitting the market every week.  Not just “willing” sellers, but “unwilling” ones too – as with Ellicott City foreclosures and “short sales”. The good news is that Howard County MD home foreclosure rates – and Ellicott City foreclosure rates in particular – are well below national averages (see prior blog). But – even at these lower rates, they still increase the “supply” of homes, putting downward pressure on prices.

TIGHT BANK APPRAISALS. The collapse of housing prices affects everyone, but banks most of all, with total bank losses estimated anywhere from $1 Trillion up to $4-5 Trillion.   When banks lose that kind of money, it’s understandable they’re now a tad “over-cautious” to approve new loans.  Appraisers are under pressure from banks to come in with low appraisal values – so even if 2011 home buyers were willing to pay higher prices (which they’re not), the banker-appraiser-Federal regulator cartel wouldn’t let them.

TEMPORARY “SPIKES” AND “DROPS” DURING 2011. The above indicators tell us that Ellicott City home prices will not increase anytime this year – or, frankly, anytime for the next 3-5 years – and they could dip another 2-5% this year.  However, we see rising interest rates, plus the threat of possible lowering of conforming loan limits [reported in the Wall Street Journal] as leading to an “early spring.”  Ellicott City home sellers contemplating a sale in 2011 would do well to get their home on the market early – even February – rather than the typical April listing time frame.  [And, with interest rates rising, Ellicott City home buyers would also do well to act quickly].

SELLER OR BUYER CONSULTATION – $349 VALUE – YOURS FREE. Click here to learn about our Free SELL-SMART™ Consultation [including our unique AccuPrice® market valuation of your home]. Or, request our BUY-SMART™ Consultation.  Including materials, both are valued at $349, and both are FREE as a courtesy to you for visiting the John And Angela blog.

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Metropolitan Regional Information Services (“MRIS”) just released home sale statistics for Howard County in December 2008. What did we learn?

First and foremost, the “death knell” to home sales we saw in October and November was, indeed, short lived. The stock market crash in late September and October, and a nightly new barrage of terms like “economic meltdown” hammered car sales, Starbucks® sales and – yes, Virginia – home sales.

For most of 2008 we saw a monthly sales rate of 1-out-of-9: of 9 homes for sale each month, one sold and 8 didn’t. It would vary a bit (low of 7.2, high of 10.9), but in November the sales rate sank to 1-out-of-14.2!

In December, the rate of sales returned to a “normal” range (for 2008). Of the 1,622 homes for sale in the county 171 actually sold. While not a record setting pace, it yields a rate of 1-out-of-9.5 – pretty darned close to the yearly average. [For complete details of December's sales and/or a pdf file of prior months' Howard County home sales click here].

Where to next?

I am still awaiting the year-end results for 2008, which MRIS has yet to release (as of 1/26/2009). Figures will likely show that prices county-wide fell by about 9.4% and that, on average, each month only one home sold for every 9.2 “for sale” that month. I’ll publish those as soon as MRIS releases them, or click here to have these stats automatically emailed to you when they are released.

The coming year may be a transition year for local real estate. On the negative side, many of the factors that have driven prices down will still be in play this year. But on the positive side, the Housing Affordability Index is now close to an all-time high.(See National Housing Affordability Index and/or Maryland Housing Affordability Index).

This is due in part to recently falling prices and also to historically low interest rates (some as low as

4.875% fixed). (Check mortgage rates on WellsFargo.com here).

My predictions aren’t always accurate – though they were for November and December. I think this coming year may see prices decline a bit more for the first half, with a “bottom” in the second half and/or a possible slight rise in prices late in the year. For more info on Howard County homes for sale, including a list of the top 10 best priced homes currently, go to JohnAndAngela.com.

Where are home prices headed in 2009 for Howard County Maryland?  Will Columbia Maryland home prices fall even more?  Will Ellicott City town home prices finally begin a recovery?

This past week I’ve reviewed close to 40 different articles online making “predictions” on where the real estate market is heading for 2009.  I’ll summarize what they say, but first a quick review of the past.

During the home price run up of 2001 – 2006 there were precious few voices of sanity.  As with the tech stock boom of the 1990’s, most “experts” were declaring a “new era” in home values and that “old rules” no longer applied.  Nearly everyone predicted a continual rise in home prices as far as the eye could see.  In other words, from ’01 thru ’06 nearly every prediction was for a continuation of the recent past. 

Fast forward to January 2009.

Today you see the same thing in reverse.  Whether you read BuilderOnline.com or HousingPredictor.com, CNNMoney.com or MSNBC-Real-Estate, they all are making basically the same prediction – that the coming year will be a continuation of the recent past.  Last time “everyone” predicted a continued rise in home prices; this time “everyone” is predicting a continued decline in home prices. 

My point: if “everyone” was wrong before (that home prices will keep rising), they just may be wrong again (that home prices will keep falling). 

I can make two predictions about Howard County home prices that are almost certain. First, no one can accurately predict the exact date of a market bottom in advance.  Second, 90% of buyers and investors who are waiting for a market bottom will miss the opportunity.  [Request your free monthly update on Howard County home price trends by email here].

Again, only a fool would predict a market bottom in advance, but here are some national and local factors that will influence home prices in the near future:

• Housing is one of the 3 “basic” human needs (food, clothing, shelter) – there will always be demand.
• Huge federal spending is likely to drive inflation up – which tends to drive stocks down in value but housing up in value.
• The feds have focused like a laser on the economy and specifically housing.  Mortgage rates have fallen a full one percent over the past 90 days.
• The new administration is likely to do even more to protect real estate values.
• Locally, Howard County Maryland is sandwiched between two major metro areas and our pet industry is the federal government and ancillary private industries.  Whether “liberal” or “conservative”, you must agree that the odds of the federal government payroll shrinking is almost nonexistent.

My prediction for Howard County home prices in 2009?  I don’t have one – other than to say that, if “everyone” is saying home prices will continue their fall through out 2009, that alone may be a sign that prices are about to recover.  Click here to get a free list of the top ten best priced homes in your price range.

I was talking with a Columbia home seller the other day about the real estate market, falling prices, etc.  She bought her home just a short while ago and had added a lot of improvements and was figuring her homes value with a formula like this: Purchase Price + Cost of Improvements = New Value.  (The Chicago Sun Times had an interesting method for “calculating” home values here).

I said, no, it doesn’t work like.  Buyer’s don’t care what you paid, for your home or improvements. All they care about is what does your home offer, by way of price and features, compared to other homes on the market today (and compared to homes just recently sold).   Yes, Howard County homes have traditional held their value – but still, your home’s value today is largely determined by what your neighbors are willing to sell for. (Request “Recent Sales In MY Neighborhood”, fee, at our main webpage).

This got me to thinking – I wonder how far home prices in Howard County Maryland really have fallen over the past few years?  So I did a little research.  I looked up ALL single family home sales in a Columbia zip code – 21045 – from July 1 through November 30.  I found 82.  I then checked the tax records on these homes to see which ones had previously sold in 2004 or later, and found 23.

I then took these 23 homes, each having sold once in 2004 – 2007 and then selling a second time in July-November 2008, and compared the first sale price to the second and discovered the following:

Howard County home sellers who bought in ’04 and sold in ’08 had a 2.8% price increase.

Howard County home sellers who bought in ’05 and sold in ’08 had a 13.8% price decrease.

Howard County home sellers who bought in ’06 and sold in ’08 had a 18.5% price decrease.

Howard County home sellers who bought in ’07 and sold in ’08 had a 14.2% price increase.

Wow.  National reports indicated that, on average, homes across America in 2008 were selling for 2004 prices, and Howard County home sales seemed to be following that trend.  What seemed most painful was for owners who bought in ’07 and sold just one year later for a 14.2% loss.

If you’d like a copy of the Excel spreadsheet used for my calculations, or other market info (including a Quik-Value of your home by email), just visit our primary webpage and request “2004 – 2008 Home Price Comparison.”

Today MSNBC reports “Home prices fall by sharpest annual rate ever”.   The report cites a 16.6% average price drop in home values nationwide as revealed by the Case-Shiller Home Price Index.   The numbers reflect an average home price of $164,570 in August 2008 versus an average price nationwide of $197,370 a year prior.

Bad news for would-be home sellers, good news for home buyers, but what do our local numbers say?

For the same period, August 2007 versus August 2008, average home values in Howard County fell 7.05% according to the Metropolitan Regional Information Service (“MRIS”). Not great news for local home sellers, but less than half the average drop in home prices that the nation experienced as a whole. (Click here to request a monthly update of Howard County home sales – including average prices # of homes sold, # of homes unsold each month).

Why is Howard County holding its own in the current housing market?  Partly it is due to our strong local economy, including the coming B.R.A.C. (Base Reallignment Commission) job transfers to Ft. Meade.  Probably also due in part to the very strong Howard County public school system.   I believe it is also a reflection of the fact that “what goes up (less) must also come down (less).”  During the boom of 2002-2005 other area county’s prices went up higher and faster than Howard County’s, so it is only natural to expect our prices to “deflate” at a calmer pace too.

One other factor is that home foreclosures in Howard County are at a lower rate than other counties, meaning foreclosures and short sales are having less of an influence on prices here.  However, home foreclosures and short sales can still be found in Howard County HERE.

Depending on who you believe, the proposed $700 Billion “bailout” currently stalled in Congress is either a reward for greedy and irresponsible Wall Street Bankers, or is a noble effort to stave off a long-lasting depression to our economy.  In reality, it’s probably a bit of both.

As I write (October 1, 2008 8:20am) it is unclear whether any such plan will pass Congress.  And, how will your home’s value be affected if the plan does pass?  If it doesn’t? And, more to the point, if you are currently selling your Howard County home – or thinking about it – how will you personally be affected?

(By the way, the single best article I’ve found to explain the “bailout”, or the Troubled Asset Relief Programme [TARP], is on The Economist website).

There Will Be Fewer Home Buyers

Whether the proposal passes Congress or not, there will be fewer home buyers than there are today. Credit markets have tightened already – but they will be even tighter in the future. If the proposal fails to pass, lenders will be even more severe in their requirements than they are today.  Expect to see 10% cash down payments required of buyers (rather than the 0% or 3% of yesterday), higher credit scores and tighter home appraisals.

Mark Twain said, “Once a cat sits on a hot stove, he’ll never sit on a hot stove again… but he won’t sit on a cold one either.”  This will describe lender behavior in the future.  Having lent too much money to poorly qualified home buyers, they will “correct” this by lender very little money, and only to extremely well qualified buyers.

But, what if the proposal passes Congress?  If that is the case, it may be better for the housing market than a failure to pass would be, but it will still mean a decrease in lending over what we have seen up until now.   With lenders relieved of much of their current bad debt, they will still be reluctant to loan money in the future – though they’d be more willing with a bailout than without one.

Prices Will Continue To Fall Or Remain Flat

I have sold real estate in Howard County for 20 years and, among my close friends and associates, no one is predicting any increase in home prices for at least five years. This is based on multiple factors, including the trend of 1990 – 1998 following the last seller’s market in our area (1985 – 1988), and based on our (still) inflated cost of purchase versus rental value ratio. (See recent Howard County home price trends here).

Simply put – prices can’t rise until both lenders standards loosen (which won’t happen anytime soon) AND wage/price inflation catches up to our high home prices (relative to the rest of the economy).

For an article on Howard County home price trends – and seller strategies for our current market – click here.

So What Should You Do?

If you don’t need to move anytime in the next 5 years or more, don’t fret.  True, your home’s value may fluctuate, but it only matters at the point you decide to sell. And, relatively speaking, Howard County home prices have traditionally been one of the more stable in the country.

However, if you plan to move or need to move in the next year or so, my advice would be that sooner is better than later.  And price your home to sell quickly – because any delay in selling will likely cost you even more, as prices decline further.    Click here for a FREE, no obligations market valuation of your home’s value.