Where are home prices headed in 2009 for Howard County Maryland?  Will Columbia Maryland home prices fall even more?  Will Ellicott City town home prices finally begin a recovery?

This past week I’ve reviewed close to 40 different articles online making “predictions” on where the real estate market is heading for 2009.  I’ll summarize what they say, but first a quick review of the past.

During the home price run up of 2001 – 2006 there were precious few voices of sanity.  As with the tech stock boom of the 1990’s, most “experts” were declaring a “new era” in home values and that “old rules” no longer applied.  Nearly everyone predicted a continual rise in home prices as far as the eye could see.  In other words, from ’01 thru ’06 nearly every prediction was for a continuation of the recent past. 

Fast forward to January 2009.

Today you see the same thing in reverse.  Whether you read BuilderOnline.com or HousingPredictor.com, CNNMoney.com or MSNBC-Real-Estate, they all are making basically the same prediction – that the coming year will be a continuation of the recent past.  Last time “everyone” predicted a continued rise in home prices; this time “everyone” is predicting a continued decline in home prices. 

My point: if “everyone” was wrong before (that home prices will keep rising), they just may be wrong again (that home prices will keep falling). 

I can make two predictions about Howard County home prices that are almost certain. First, no one can accurately predict the exact date of a market bottom in advance.  Second, 90% of buyers and investors who are waiting for a market bottom will miss the opportunity.  [Request your free monthly update on Howard County home price trends by email here].

Again, only a fool would predict a market bottom in advance, but here are some national and local factors that will influence home prices in the near future:

• Housing is one of the 3 “basic” human needs (food, clothing, shelter) – there will always be demand.
• Huge federal spending is likely to drive inflation up – which tends to drive stocks down in value but housing up in value.
• The feds have focused like a laser on the economy and specifically housing.  Mortgage rates have fallen a full one percent over the past 90 days.
• The new administration is likely to do even more to protect real estate values.
• Locally, Howard County Maryland is sandwiched between two major metro areas and our pet industry is the federal government and ancillary private industries.  Whether “liberal” or “conservative”, you must agree that the odds of the federal government payroll shrinking is almost nonexistent.

My prediction for Howard County home prices in 2009?  I don’t have one – other than to say that, if “everyone” is saying home prices will continue their fall through out 2009, that alone may be a sign that prices are about to recover.  Click here to get a free list of the top ten best priced homes in your price range.