Centennial / Ellicott City Home Sale Price Changes '03-'11

I recently posted on the year/year price trends for Howard County, Maryland homes for sale over the past 10 years.  In summary, the average sold price of homes sold in Howard County increased 3.2% from 2009 – 2010, decreased -0.3% from 2010 – 2011, and taking the two years combined yields an average increase in price of 1.5% per year for two years in a row.  In short – there is strong evidence that Howard County MD home prices have “stabilized”.

But, what about average prices and number of sales for homes sold near Centennial High School and/or Centennial Lane Elementary in Ellicott City over the same time period?

Basically, homes selling in the Centennial High School/Centennial Lane Elementary School area experienced peaks and valleys similar to the county over all.  However, because of the strong test scores and “pull” of both Centennial High School and Centennial Lane Elementary School, the peaks and valleys were a bit more extreme.  (CLICK HERE for a list of homes currently for sale in the Centennial school area and/or to get the price of a specific home recently sold).

Home prices in Howard County peaked in 2006 ($453,951) and they peaked for the Ellicott City – Centennial schools neighborhood in 2006 as well, but at a higher $753,736.   Both areas also saw prices fall to lows in 2009 – Howard County home prices that year were $390,093 and for both Centennial schools’ neighborhood were $504,557.

The price drop for Howard County home sales, ’06 – ’09, was -14.1%, but in the Centennial school neighborhood it was a more extreme -33.1%.  However, during the price run-up of ’01 through ’06 Centennial school area home sales also experienced a more extreme increase too.   For example, during the peak increase years of ’02 – ’04 Howard County home prices rose an average of 39.2% (from $263,743 to $367,036), while Centennial school area home prices rose an incredible 63.6% during the same two year period ($382,764 to $626,102).

Centennial / Ellicott City Home Sale Stats: '00 - '11

Even the price “stabilization” / slight uptick in prices has been more extreme for Centennial school area homes.  County prices have been essentially stable from ’09 – ’11 with an overall 1.5% increase per year.  For Centennial school area homes prices are up an overall 6.5%/year the past two years.

Where will Ellicott City home prices, especially in the Centennial school area, go the next few years?  As with my predictions for Howard County home sales in general, I believe we have “hit bottom” on price declines, and we’re not likely to see any significant price increases for the next 2-3 years.  Why?

On the positive side, our region has stronger employment numbers than national averages, and the high test scores for Centennial schools will continue to be a draw.  However, mortgage qualification standards continue to be strict, and many would-be home buyers for Ellicott City homes who relocate from other states are finding it hard to sell their out-of-state homes, leaving them unable to buy here.

In short – our housing market has (hopefully) hit bottom, the county (and especially the Centennial school area of Ellicott City) appears to be in “recovery”, and we’re not likely to see big price swings up or down over the next 2-3 years.  CLICK HERE to search for homes for sale in Centennial school area, Ellicott City – or – CLICK HERE to request a Free, No-Obligations market valuation of YOUR home.

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