The Howard County MD real estate market, especially Ellicott City  homes for sale near Centennial High School, is heating up.

Ellicott City home buyers are operating on two assumptions, both probably true. The first is that Ellicott City home prices have finally hit bottom – so there is no benefit in waiting to buy. Second, mortgage rates (currently as low as 3.88% for 30 year fixed) have also hit bottom, and will likely climb before summer’s end.

(CLICK HERE To Get a LIST of Homes For Sale In Centennial HS Area of Ellicott City)

The combination of these two factors is driving more and more Howard County MD home buyers out on the hunt, and Ellicott City homes for sale, in the Centennial High School area and others as well, are seeing multiple offers for the first time in years.

How To Find Your Ellicott City Home First, Before Others Do

Our unique AccuSearch® system gives you a customized home search exact to your wants and needs, even by specific Howard County Maryland specific school district - finally you can find homes for sale near Centennial High School in Ellicott City, or in the Marriotts Ridge High School or River Hill High School areas, in your exact price range, etc.

CLICK HERE (or on the photo, right) to see homes currently for sale in the Centennial High School area of Ellicott City.

Or, even better, CLICK HERE to set up your own unique AccuSearch® for your Howard County MD or Ellicott City “dream home” – and from today forward you will be the first  to know whenever a matching home, in your favorite Howard County MD school district, hits the market.

While prices and mortgage rates are both low, you need a competitive advantage to be the first to find your Howard County MD home for sale.  Call us at 410-772-5400, or CLICK HERE for more information.  Thanks, John & Angela Toner

Further evidence that home sales in Howard County Maryland have likely “turned
the corner”  is seen in the decreasing number of “short sales” and foreclosures as a percentage of home sales.  This is especially true for home sales near Centennial High School in Ellicott City, where foreclosures and short sales as a percentage of home sales near Centennial High School have greatly decreased.

What’s The Difference Between “Foreclosure” And “Short Sale”?

Foreclosure is where the bank sues to take title to the property, then resells the property as a “foreclosure”.   A “short sale” is where, pre-foreclosure, the bank “consents” to a sale of the property where the sale price, and proceeds, are “short of” full payoff of the mortgage (hence the term “short sale”).

Foreclosure Sales Have Fallen In Howard County

Foreclosures, as a share of Howard County Maryland home sales, peaked in 2010 at 12.3%.  Since then foreclosures as a percentage of home sales fell to 9.0% in 2011.  Current “Pending” home sales awaiting settlement are  6.4% foreclosures, and of “Active” homes for sale right now only 3.2% are foreclosures.  This shows a clear and steady decline – good news for Howard County home owners and sellers.

What About CENTENNIAL Home Sales?

Over the past three years “short sales” and foreclosures  sales as a percentage of home sales near Centennial High School in Ellicott City have been much lower than average.  From 2009 – 2011 distress sales were 19.0% of all home sales county-wide. During the same three year period there were 10 distress sales in the Centennial Lane Elementary area out of 144 sales overall – or just 6.9%.

Individually each distress sale is sad to be sure. But, it is encouraging to know that Howard County’s foreclosure sales were far lower than national averages, and that foreclosure sales near Centennial High School / Centennial Lane Elementary were an even smaller percentage of all home sales near Centennial High School.

BUYING? Click HERE to get a list of homes currently for sale in Centennial School Area and/or ANY OTHER school area of your choice, or call John & Angela, 410-772-5400.  THANKS!

SELLING? CLICK HERE to get an AccuPrice® valuation of your home, and/or HomeSell Consultation – a combined $349 value – yours free.    Or, JUST CALL!  410-772-5400   (Or – if you have a friend thinking of buying or selling, why not tell them to call?!)

John & Angela Toner, Providence Real Estate

One of my 2012 goals is to blog more often – especially to keep folks posted about home sales, and homes for sale, in the Centennial High School and Centennial Lane Elementary School areas of Ellicott City, MD.  In this blog I just want to define my “target area”, and explain why it’s my target area.

Centennial High School Boundary Map - 3 Sub-Areas

The map to the right shows the Centennial High School district for the 2012 school year.  On this map I have drawn boundaries for what I see as three distinct communities: Centennial Lane Elementary School area (“A”); Dunloggin neighborhood (“B”); and East of Route 29, in zip code 21043 (“C”). (To find homes for sale in Centennial High School – Ellicott City, or search by any other school area, visit the AccuSearch® link here).

From years of working as a buyer’s agent in Ellicott City MD, I know that home buyers asking to see homes for sale in the Centennial High School area tend to favor homes for sale in area “A” (Centennial Lane Elementary) first, and area “C” last.  Why?

Because when you buy a home in Howard County, Maryland there is always a risk of being “redistricted” to another school in the future. When you buy a home closer to your target school (e.g. “A” – Centennial Lane Elementary) you reduce the risk of redistricting.  Area “C” is not only the furthest from Centennial High School, it is also cut off by Route 29, the type of natural barrier that could easily put area “C”  on the “chopping block” the next time the school board is looking to change boundaries for Centennial High School. (Howard County, MD School Boundary Maps HERE; Find Homes For Sale By Howard County MD School District HERE).

Do I have “insider knowledge” on future redistricting decisions for Howard County? Nope. But, you really don’t need it for this sort of thing. And, whether or not Centennial High School will be redistricted anytime in the near future isn’t exactly the point.  Buyers searching for Ellicott City homes for sale that feed to Centennial High School assume there’s a risk of redistricting, and will give a higher value for homes in the Centennial Lane Elementary area than they will for, say, homes in area “C”.

I’d also like to acknowledge that the Howard County Public School System is, pretty much in its entirety, a top-drawer school system.  As compared to the rest of the nation there are no “bad” schools in Howard County. But, it’s certainly true that even within a quality district like ours, some schools tend to have higher test scores – and consequently tend to be favored by those buying homes in Ellicott City and Columbia Maryland, than other schools.  And, Centennial High School has for years been at the top of the “preferred” list.

Next Time: Home Sales In Centennial School Area – Big Spring Coming In 2012?   Can’t wait?  Click HERE to get a list of homes currently for sale in Centennial School Area and/or past sales information, or call John & Angela, 410-772-5400.  THANKS!

Centennial / Ellicott City Home Sale Price Changes '03-'11

I recently posted on the year/year price trends for Howard County, Maryland homes for sale over the past 10 years.  In summary, the average sold price of homes sold in Howard County increased 3.2% from 2009 – 2010, decreased -0.3% from 2010 – 2011, and taking the two years combined yields an average increase in price of 1.5% per year for two years in a row.  In short – there is strong evidence that Howard County MD home prices have “stabilized”.

But, what about average prices and number of sales for homes sold near Centennial High School and/or Centennial Lane Elementary in Ellicott City over the same time period?

Basically, homes selling in the Centennial High School/Centennial Lane Elementary School area experienced peaks and valleys similar to the county over all.  However, because of the strong test scores and “pull” of both Centennial High School and Centennial Lane Elementary School, the peaks and valleys were a bit more extreme.  (CLICK HERE for a list of homes currently for sale in the Centennial school area and/or to get the price of a specific home recently sold).

Home prices in Howard County peaked in 2006 ($453,951) and they peaked for the Ellicott City – Centennial schools neighborhood in 2006 as well, but at a higher $753,736.   Both areas also saw prices fall to lows in 2009 – Howard County home prices that year were $390,093 and for both Centennial schools’ neighborhood were $504,557.

The price drop for Howard County home sales, ’06 – ’09, was -14.1%, but in the Centennial school neighborhood it was a more extreme -33.1%.  However, during the price run-up of ’01 through ’06 Centennial school area home sales also experienced a more extreme increase too.   For example, during the peak increase years of ’02 – ’04 Howard County home prices rose an average of 39.2% (from $263,743 to $367,036), while Centennial school area home prices rose an incredible 63.6% during the same two year period ($382,764 to $626,102).

Centennial / Ellicott City Home Sale Stats: '00 - '11

Even the price “stabilization” / slight uptick in prices has been more extreme for Centennial school area homes.  County prices have been essentially stable from ’09 – ’11 with an overall 1.5% increase per year.  For Centennial school area homes prices are up an overall 6.5%/year the past two years.

Where will Ellicott City home prices, especially in the Centennial school area, go the next few years?  As with my predictions for Howard County home sales in general, I believe we have “hit bottom” on price declines, and we’re not likely to see any significant price increases for the next 2-3 years.  Why?

On the positive side, our region has stronger employment numbers than national averages, and the high test scores for Centennial schools will continue to be a draw.  However, mortgage qualification standards continue to be strict, and many would-be home buyers for Ellicott City homes who relocate from other states are finding it hard to sell their out-of-state homes, leaving them unable to buy here.

In short – our housing market has (hopefully) hit bottom, the county (and especially the Centennial school area of Ellicott City) appears to be in “recovery”, and we’re not likely to see big price swings up or down over the next 2-3 years.  CLICK HERE to search for homes for sale in Centennial school area, Ellicott City – or – CLICK HERE to request a Free, No-Obligations market valuation of YOUR home.

The U.S. real estate market peaked between
2005 – 2007, depending on the exact locale. Since then nearly all national
reporting on real estate has been negative – with “Foreclosures“, “Short Sales“, “Falling Home Prices” and such dominating the headlines.

So, where is the good news about real estate? Apparently right here in Howard County, Maryland!

Howard County Home Prices “Stabilize”

As with the rest of the U.S., prices for Ellicott City, Columbia and other Howard County homes have fallen since the market’s peak. But, while average U.S. prices fell anywhere from 21% to 33%, depending on which reports you read, Howard County’s home prices had a “softer” drop: 17.8%.   Maybe small comfort to those who bought a home in Ellicott City or Columbia Maryland in ’06 or ’07, but still better than national averages.

Also, since 2009 Ellicott City and other Howard County home prices appear to have stabilized.  Average Howard County home prices peaked in 2007 at $455,464 and hit bottom (we hope) at $390,093 in 2009.  The past two years average Howard County home prices were up slightly in 2010 ($402,848, up 3.2%) and down slightly in 2011 ($401,535, down 0.3%).  (Statistics collected from Metropolitan Regional Information Services. Get more info on Ellicott City / Howard County MD homes for sale and Ellicott City real estate information from JohnAndAngela.com here).

BRAC Employment Helping

Over the past two years Howard County home prices had actually had a positive change in average prices – by 1.5% per year!  Not the stunning 23.7% increase we saw from ’03 to ’04, but still a danged sight better than the -11.3% from ’08 to ’09.  And better than the overall (continued) price declines most of the nation saw the past two years.

No doubt the beefed up employment at Ft Meade due to BRAC has been helping. While many area home owners had hoped BRAC would lead to huge increases in home prices, the overall slow economy and tougher lending standards just wouldn’t support this. But – any increase is better than what most of the nation has seen the past two years.

Near-term predictions?  One year ago I reported on the year/year 3.2% increase in Howard County home prices. At that time I made a “hopeful” pronouncement that we’d hit bottom, and predicted largely flat prices for the next few years.

For 2011 I was correct. The slight -0.3% decline is easily within my definition of “flat” prices (+/- 2%).  I believe we have another 2-3 years of continued flat home prices.  Yes, BRAC will continue to help on  the positive side, but a sluggish economy and restrictive lending standards will balance things out for continued price neutrality.

SELLER OR BUYER CONSULTATION – $349 VALUE – YOURS FREE. Click here to learn about our Free SELL-SMART™ Consultation [including our unique AccuPrice® market valuation of your home]. Or, request our BUY-SMART™ Consultation.  Including materials, both are valued at $349, and both are FREE as a courtesy to you for visiting the John And Angela blog.

Lord knows it’s been hard to find “good news” in real estate the past few years. So, when a cautious, financially conservative voice like the Wall Street Journal opines It’s Time To Buy That House, you have to believe there’s something to it. While the WSJ article focuses on national figures, we believe it applies quite well to Howard County Maryland real estate and Ellicott City home sales in particular.

The gist of the WSJ article is that, just like using a stock’s price/earnings ratio helps determine whether a stock is a “bargain”, a home’s price/rent ratio can likewise reveal whether it’s time to buy.   In either case a lower number indicates a better “bargain.”  Nationwide the price/rent ratio hit 18.5 at market’s peak. Today it’s down to 11.3.

Price/rent ratios aren’t available anywhere for Howard County or Ellicott City homes for sale, but we do have recent sale price statistics for Howard County and Ellicott City home sales. Monthly home sales for Howard County Maryland, September 2011 vs. September 2010, show Howard County home prices are stable:  the average price increased 0.2% and median price increased 0.33%.

Likewise, statistics for zip code 21042 (west Ellicott City) for September 2011 vs. 2010 reveal the average price dipped 2.47% ($549,225 to $535,666) but the median price rose 4.0% ($500,000 to $520,000).  Taken together, we read these figures to say Ellicott City home prices have reached “balance”.   Click here to request monthly updates of Howard County home sales or Ellicott City home sales.

So, the Ellicott City home you buy today will cost about the same as last year – but, the mortgage will cost much less. The cost of borrowing money is near all-time lows at just 4.25% for a 30-Year fixed rate according to WellsFargo.com.  For comparison on a $500,000 mortgage, an Ellicott City home buyer today would pay 22% less than if rates were at 6% (as many had predicted for fall 2011) - $2,460 today vs. $2,998/mo at 6%.

So, to paraphrase the WSJ, yes, it is time to buy that Ellicott City home.

Remodeled Centennial Beauty

If you’re looking to buy in the Centennial Lane Elementary school district there are currently 23 homes for sale. There are nine priced between $375,000 to $600,000, including the home to the right, a spacious-and-updated colonial on an over-sized lot priced below recent sales.  There are a total of 49 homes for sale in the entire Centennial High School district, including 28 priced between $180,000 to $600,000.

If you are looking for homes for sale in specific school districts, like Centennial High School or Marriotts Ridge High School, click here to set up an AccuSearch® home search. Now you can be the first to know when your dream home hits the market – and only AccuSearch® gives you the ability to include school district(s) as one of your search criteria.

Use our Contact Form to request regular market updates on Howard County Maryland real estate and/or Columbia Maryland or Ellicott City Maryland homes for sale, OR if you would like to speak with one of us about buying or selling a home.  Thanks!

Howard County Home Price Trends - 1978 to 2010

Howard County home buyers and sellers ask me all the time, “Where are home prices headed?” And, more bluntly, “When will Howard County home prices start going up again?”  All predictions are risky and, truth is, no one knows for sure. But I believe home prices in Howard County will  neither increase or decrease significantly over the next two to four years.  (We publish a print newsletter on Howard County real estate trends monthly. To receive future and/or past issues, FREE, click here).

There is downward pressure on our Howard County home prices based on history (this blog), and based on current and likely future mortgage changes (next blog).  However, the Baltimore/Washington regional economy is stronger than the national average, and the Ft. Meade economic boost to Howard County in particular (future blog) helps “balance” downward price pressure.

Howard County Home Prices – 1978 to 2010

To understand the future it’s good to know the past.  Using statistics from the Federal Housing Finance Agency, I developed the price chart above to track the change in home prices in Howard County from 1978 to 2010.  Using a base price of $100,000 in 1978, the wavy blue line tracts actual fluctuations, the thin red line tracts a fictitious straight-line appreciation rate of 5.6% per year (an average appreciation rate for the U.S. over the past 40 years).  Each of the colored panels represents a nine year period.

From 1981 to 1989 (the first green rectangle) Howard County home prices went both up and down. But, in the nine years overall actual price changes tracked perfectly with the 5.6% straight line appreciation level.

In the next nine years, 1990 to 1998, prices remained almost flat.  This was partly due to the recession of ’89 to ’93 as well as tax code changes affecting investment real estate.  In Montgomery county, to the south, homes lost value during this time – but Howard County merely had largely flat prices.

From 1999 to 2007 Howard County home prices shot off like a rocket, climbing 129.8% over nine years. In fact, in just six years ending in ’06 prices jumped 115%. If that rate of increase had continued another six years, the average home price in the county would have hit $1,000,000. This was obviously not sustainable.

The last pink rectangle shows Howard county home prices have falling 15.3% from the market’s peak in ’07 to ’10, which includes a slight uptick of 3.2% on prices in 2010.  While discouraging news to sellers, our decline has been less than the average decline in the U.S., estimated at 23.2%.  Our decline has also been softer than even some other local areas – parts of Prince George’s county have seen 45% – 52% price declines from the peak.

By the way, if you are “curious” about the current value and/or change in value in a particular Howard County home, either yours or one you are considering buying, you can get a general guestimate at FHFA.gov or get a more specific valuation free by email here.

History Will Repeat Itself… But Which History?

Will Ellicott City home prices repeat history from ’02 to ’05 in the next four years?  Will Columbia MD home prices repeat ’08 to ’10 the next three years?  The most likely “guess”, I believe, is that Howard County home prices in the next 2 – 5 years will look much like the 90′s in our area – with little up or down swing.

Even with the 15.3% drop already priced into today’s Howard County home prices, we are still above the staight-line 5.6% sustainable appreciation rate.  And, the types of mortgage changes being contemplated by the Feds (see my coming blog) will have, I believe, a stifling effect on potential price increases typical Ellicott City home prices similar to the effect the tax code changes had in the early 90′s.

Two additional factors keeping downward pressure on prices are present and future contemplated changes to the mortgage industry (my next blog).  But, the present and coming BRAC boost to Ft Meade employment, as well as the Balto/Washington regional economy in general, will have a positive impact on house prices (future blog) that will net out, I believe, to yield an overall flat home price picture over the next 2-4 years.

And, if you (or your FRIENDS!) are thinking of buying or selling a Howard County home in the near future, call me (410-772-5400 work, 443-420-7041 Google Voice) or click here.  Thanks for reading!

Happy New Year! (And, Happy Birthday, Angela Toner!).  With the new year comes the inevitable questions: Will Ellicott City home sales and home prices increase for 2011? No one knows for sure, but  market factors seem to indicate that Ellicott City home prices will remain flat – or even dip a bit more – in 2011, but the pace of home sales may kick off the new year with a bang.

So, what are the factors that will influence Ellicott City home prices, and home sales, in 2011?

RISING MORTGAGE RATES. Mortgage rates have been on the rise the past 90 days, and are predicted to continue to rise through year’s end.  Rising rates are good/bad news for home sellers.  Good news, because rising rates give buyers a sense of urgency – they want to buy quickly, before rates rise again.  But, rising rates decrease the amount of home they can afford – putting downward pressure on prices.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND. Because of excellent schools like Centennial High School, demand for homes for sale nearby Centennial has always been relatively strong from potential home buyers.  However – home buyers’ enthusiasm level in 2011 is tempered by the knowledge that Ellicott City home prices have fallen steadily for four years in a row. In 2011, more than ever before, Ellicott City home buyers have a cautious, “I can wait” attitude.  If you know the sale price and date of  Ellicott City home, this government website lets you calculate it’s approximate value today. Or, for a more accurate valuation of your specific Ellicott City home’s value – free – click here.

While demand is a bit dampened overall, there is a constant supply of homes hitting the market every week.  Not just “willing” sellers, but “unwilling” ones too – as with Ellicott City foreclosures and “short sales”. The good news is that Howard County MD home foreclosure rates – and Ellicott City foreclosure rates in particular – are well below national averages (see prior blog). But – even at these lower rates, they still increase the “supply” of homes, putting downward pressure on prices.

TIGHT BANK APPRAISALS. The collapse of housing prices affects everyone, but banks most of all, with total bank losses estimated anywhere from $1 Trillion up to $4-5 Trillion.   When banks lose that kind of money, it’s understandable they’re now a tad “over-cautious” to approve new loans.  Appraisers are under pressure from banks to come in with low appraisal values – so even if 2011 home buyers were willing to pay higher prices (which they’re not), the banker-appraiser-Federal regulator cartel wouldn’t let them.

TEMPORARY “SPIKES” AND “DROPS” DURING 2011. The above indicators tell us that Ellicott City home prices will not increase anytime this year – or, frankly, anytime for the next 3-5 years – and they could dip another 2-5% this year.  However, we see rising interest rates, plus the threat of possible lowering of conforming loan limits [reported in the Wall Street Journal] as leading to an “early spring.”  Ellicott City home sellers contemplating a sale in 2011 would do well to get their home on the market early – even February – rather than the typical April listing time frame.  [And, with interest rates rising, Ellicott City home buyers would also do well to act quickly].

SELLER OR BUYER CONSULTATION – $349 VALUE – YOURS FREE. Click here to learn about our Free SELL-SMART™ Consultation [including our unique AccuPrice® market valuation of your home]. Or, request our BUY-SMART™ Consultation.  Including materials, both are valued at $349, and both are FREE as a courtesy to you for visiting the John And Angela blog.

We’ve all seen a barrage of “shocking” headlines on foreclosures, including this Reuters posting declaring September 2010 set an all time record with 100,000+ foreclosures nationwide. Howard County home buyers and sellers want to know what impact are foreclosures having on our local market?  Are foreclosure homes in Ellicott City above, below, or equal to the national average? And, how are prices of non- foreclosure homes in Columbia, Maryland affected by foreclosure homes in Howard County Maryland?

A foreclosure certainly decreases the value of the foreclosure home itself, estimated to be an average of 27% according to a posting by Molly Line.  But studies on the affect foreclosure homes have on other homes’ values are less clear and vary in their conclusions, but one study impressed me personally.  A Federal Reserve Bank, Cleveland, Sept 2010 report suggests that where foreclosure rates are “moderate” the impact on housing prices is just -1.6%.

So – do we have “moderate” rates of home foreclosures in Howard County, Maryland?  Are home foreclosure rates in Ellicott City above or below the Howard County average?

For the second quarter of 2010 foreclosures represented 24% of all home sales nationwide.   Statistics from our local Realtor® database of homes (“MRIS”) shows that there were 430 foreclosure home sales in Howard County Maryland from January to September, 2010.  Out of  2,140 total home sales, foreclosure home sales in Howard County represented 20.1% of all home sales.  (Find all Howard County MD or Ellicott City homes for sale here, or search specifically for foreclosure homes in Howard County MD or Ellicott City here).

While every foreclosure is a heartbreak for the family involved, it is partially good news to know that the Howard County rate of foreclosure home sales is less than the national average.

We have broken down statistics even further, to show the impact of foreclosure home sales by neighborhood (Centennial High School area home sales had fewer foreclosures, by far, than the county average) as well as by price range (you’d be shocked to see which price range had a 48% foreclosure average vs. which had a 0% average).

You can request our full analysis of Howard County Foreclosure Homes – By Region And Price Range here.  We hope to publish bits and pieces of the full report, by area, in future blogs.   As per usual, you can call 410-772-5400, M-F, 9-5 with any questions about Howard County real estate, or send us an email here.  Blessings