Nationally home prices have fallen close to 30% from the all-time peak (from ’05 to ’07, depending on the area).  In Howard County the price decline has been closer to about 20%, and the same for the Centennial area.  However, in reviewing home sales statistics for the Centennial Lane Elementary School district, one shocking stat jumps out.

During the run-up in housing, from 2000 to 2005, this part of the  Centennial High School district in Ellicott City had home sales averaging  87 sales per year.  When the slump hit sales fell to an average of 67 sales/year from ’06 thru ’08.  But last year the number of sales collapsed to just 29 home sales!  That 29 number is less than half (43%) of the average of the prior three “down” years, and roughly one third (36%) of the average for the prior nine years.  (We tract area home sale stats constantly – for more info on home sales in Ellicott City visit our Contact Us page).

We believe there are two reasons why neighborhood home sales collapsed last year. First, the stock market crash of 2008 had a ing effect on home buyers’ moods for at least the first half of 2009. This was especially true for affluent home buyers, the type attracted to Ellicott City and/or Centennial High School particularly.  Second, many sellers have been slow to recognize that, if you ask an ’06 price for your home in ’09 or ’10, it won’t sell.

We also believe that 2010 will see a strong rebound in Centennial Lane Elementary home sales.  First, the core attractions to the neighborhood – schools and conscientious neighbors – remain as strong and as in demand as ever.  Also, the depressing effect of the stock market crash is no longer a factor.  Finally, economists predict that interest rates will rise as much as 1.25% by year’s end – pressuring buyers to buy quickly before rates rise.

Will 2010 see record-setting sales above the 105 sales set in 2001? Probably not.  But, we should at least see sales climb back to the 60+ range for 2010, which would be a welcome relief and a doubling of sales from 2009.

Want more information on homes for sale in Ellicott City and/or homes for sale in the Centennial High School or Centennial Lane Elementary areas? Interested in selling a home in Ellicott City and/or the Centennial High School area?  Call us at 410-772-5400, or request an AccuSearch(R) home search for homes for sale in the Centennial High School area, or visit our Contact Us page.  Thanks!  All inquiries are held strictly confidential and your information will never be shared with anyone.